Who will Melissa Bishop face in tonight’s 800m semifinal?

On Tuesday, Canada’s Melissa Bishop played the lung-busting chess match that is the first round of the 800m heats perfectly. She cruised to victory, automatically securing herself a spot in tonight’s semifinal.

Running three rounds of a the two-lap race is demanding. The best runners in the world want to do just enough to advance, but not so much as to jeopardize their recovery and ability to perform at 100 per cent in a final.

The first round of heats in Rio were pretty quick. Every qualifier ran 2:00 or faster to advance. The 2:00 barrier is seen as the great dividing line that defines a world class female 800m runner, similar to the 10-second barrier in the men’s 100m.

#CAN Melissa Bishop wins her 800m heat in #Athletics #Rio2016. Watch it NOW https://t.co/kWDV1N5dRe https://t.co/c2RZjnY1RV

— CBC Olympics (@CBCOlympics) August 17, 2016

Coming in as a contender

Canada’s Melissa Bishop came to Rio a favourite. It’s the first time a middle distance runner has been considered a medal contender in years. Her national record time of 1:57.43 is among the best PBs in the field. But more importantly, Bishop showed last year at the IAAF World Championships in Beijing that she’s figured out how to be strategic in a championship-style meet, where she’s had to figure how to position herself for success, depending on the nature of the race. Her silver medal in Beijing solidified her as one of the brightest racing minds in her discipline.

In Rio, she’s going to need to be extra sharp.

How finals qualification works

Only the top two finishers in each heat will automatically qualify. Then, the two “fastest losers” overall from all the heats will also move on to the final.

Although Bishop dodged having to face the overwhelming favourite, Caster Semenya of South Africa, who has been trampling the competition. Leading up to Rio, Semenya jogged a 1:55.33, beating a world class field by several body lengths. She’s perhaps more of a favourite in her event than Usain Bolt was in the 100m, so many feel that this is a race for silver and bronze.

Bishop will also be glad that she’s not sharing a heat with Margaret Wambui of Kenyan. She looked strong in her first round run, and also has a 1:57 from this year.

Who Bishop will face

But Bishop’s heat, the second to be run, is a tricky draw. She will face the other Kenyan to qualify, her rival Eunice Sum. Sum’s PB is just under 1:57 (1:56.99 to be exact), and is a big medal favourite along with Bishop, but the Canadian has been able to figure Sum out, and beat her soundly in Beijing.

The other two athletes to watch out for in Bishop’s heat are Joanna Jozwik of Poland and Selina Buchel of Switzerland. Both are strong tactical runners with good finishes.

In heat one, expect Wambui and Angelika Cichocka of Burundi to push the pace in the second lap, create a gap and qualify.

In heat two, unless the pace of heat one is suicidally fast (meaning that all but the two auto qualifier spots could be already taken), the bulk of the athletes will probably run conservatively in the first lap. Bishop has figured out how to win these sorts of races, so expect her to just check Sum, Jozwik and Buchel if they are at the front. Bishop has a strong finish, so she can win a kicker’s race if she needs to.

Heat three should  produce some very fast and desperate running. Bulgaria’s Marina Arzamasova is the reigning world champ and certainly won’t want to be left out of the final. Kate Grace of the U.S. and Lynsey Sharp of the U.K. are also strong competitors, but none of these runners can keep pace with Semenya, so it will be a race for that one automatic spot, and perhaps the two time qualifiers. It’s always the most advantageous to be in the last heat because these athletes will know what they have to run to get through to the final. Whether or not the race is favourable to produce the needed result is s a different story altogether.

The semifinal heats begin at 9:15 p.m. ET.

HEAT 1 – 8:15 p.m. ET

HEAT 2 – 8:21 p.m. ET

HEAT 3 – 8:27 p.m. ET