Notables in the running world predict outcome of Breaking2 attempt
See what numbers are being tossed around on social media ahead of the two-hour marathon attempt, known as the Breaking2 project.
On Saturday morning in Monza, Italy, three of the greatest men’s distance runners in the world will take to the track, a F1 course to be specific, in pursuit of a barrier that has never even been closely approached.
Nike’s Breaking2 project, an initiative put on by the sports giant in an effort to break the two-hour marathon, features Eliud Kipchoge, Zersenay Tadese and Lelisa Desisa. The attempt has been publicized widely, and hotly debated, especially on social media. Nearly three minutes, 2:58, would need to be taken off the current world record of 2:02:57 in order to run below two hours.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=13&v=QtePKdLr_oQ
See what some of the biggest names in running predicted in regards to the outcome of the two-hour marathon. Make sure to voice your opinion in our poll below too.
Dr. Michael Joyner, physiologist and anesthesiologist at the Mayo Clinic, authored study that found 1:57:58 to be fastest possible marathon time
Key is to put the athlete in a position for an outlier performance. Nike has done this. Not sure I would go with 25% but perhaps 10-15%. https://t.co/XRj091SpYY
— Michael Joyner (@DrMJoyner) May 4, 2017
My over/under for 2hr effort 2:01:30 @edcaesar @sweatscience @cragcrest @BStulberg @stevemagness @jdlisanti @ChrisChavez @JohnAHawley https://t.co/xpXoQPKyGU
— Michael Joyner (@DrMJoyner) May 4, 2017
Ed Caesar, author of Two Hours: The Quest To Run The Impossible Marathon
https://twitter.com/edcaesar/status/859144214755643393
Alex Hutchinson, author of the blog Sweat Science and Canadian Running senior editor
Mike's track record is pretty good on this stuff. My heart says under, but if I was putting real money down, my inner pessimist would win. https://t.co/prWMmXkXas
— Alex Hutchinson (@sweatscience) May 4, 2017
Steve Magness, coach and author of Science of Running
I give it less than 1% with Kipchoge only hope.
— Steve Magness (@stevemagness) May 4, 2017
Yep. I'm predicting two DNFs and depending for on how long he tries to stays on pace a 2:02mid
— Steve Magness (@stevemagness) May 4, 2017
Over
— Steve Magness (@stevemagness) May 4, 2017
Chris Chavez, Sports Illustrated writer
I'm taking the over here too!
— Chris Chavez (@ChrisChavez) May 4, 2017
Ross Tucker, sports scientist
I agree with John Kellogg on #breaking2 chances, but it’ll be fun to see where the over-under is for holding the pace. I say 15-16 miles pic.twitter.com/yFXPAYGJEa
— Ross Tucker (@Scienceofsport) May 4, 2017
Trent Stellingwerff, exercise physiologist
Over due to blow up – if they paced at 2:01:30 then that is possible, but they almost certainly won't do that.
— Trent Stellingwerff (@TStellingwerff) May 5, 2017
As an aside, Kara Goucher wrote on Twitter that she believes the women’s benchmark to be 2:11-2:12, below the current world record of 2:15:25, set by Paula Radcliffe.
Don't hate #Breaking2, interested to see what's possible when rules are thrown out. But honestly curious how many females relate/care?
— Kara Goucher (@karagoucher) May 4, 2017
I honestly don't know. Missed opportunity to get more interest. Frustrating- these "barriers" e.g. 4min, 60min, 2hrs- only relevant to men.
— Kara Goucher (@karagoucher) May 4, 2017
Canadian Running is in Italy for the attempt so make sure to check back at runningmagazine.ca for the latest as well as follow us on social media for an exclusive look at the Breaking2 project.
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Useful Canadian Running links
– The pacers
– Breaking2 shoes
– Weather
– CR podcast on the sub-two-hour marathon attempt
– The venue
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