Rio Preview – Women’s marathon: A wide open race: Can Lanni Marchant pull off the double?
Eight of the top 10 finishers from last year's world championship will battle for gold on a warm morning in Rio. Canadian rivals DuChene and Marchant race each other once again.
When: Sunday, Aug. 14, 8:30 a.m. EDT
Who’s the favourite: Mare Dibaba
How to watch:
The CBC will broadcast the world feed on their main network. It can also be streamed here.
What to watch for:
Olympic marathons are chaotic. The favourites going in rarely win, mainly because there are no pacers at the Games to get the fastest in the world off to a pace that others can’t match. This allows many other strong tactical distance runners into contention. The other big reason why the heavyweights never seem to win at an Olympic marathon is because they come in taxed by the busy spring racing schedule. And there’s also the temptation to drop out and race for a big payday in the fall in Berlin, Chicago or New York if the Olympic marathon isn’t going perfectly midway through.
RELATED: Run the Olympic marathon course from anywhere with this interactive app.
This uncertainty actually makes for a more dramatic (and, quite frankly, better) race. Young upstarts and unheralded marathoners often take advantage of the fickleness of the established stars and take bigger risks. But there’s one veteran in the field that showed recently she won’t back down and is up for a risky battle. Mare Dibaba, who has the fastest qualifying time (2:19:52) coming into Rio, out-duelled Kenya’s Helah Kiprop at the 2015 World Championship marathon last year in Beijing. She hasn’t had a stellar 2016 thus far, but has shown that she’s not bothered by heat or a tactical race.
Speaking of the weather, it will be a factor for many athletes on Sunday. The forecast calls for sun and climbing temperatures (19-25 C in a span of about three hours around the start to finish). The fastest marathon times and highest success rates take place in cooler, low humidity conditions below 15 C, so don’t expect to see a sub-2:20 race.
Who will win: Helah Kiprop
She came in second in Beijing, showing she can run hard in tough conditions, and will be hungry to win this rematch. Kiprop has opted to run the Tokyo Marathon in February each of the last two years, which better aligns her for a successful August marathon (whereas Dibaba and others ran London or Boston in April).
How it will play out:
Eight of the top 10 from the 2015 world championship marathon will be racing in Rio, which should make for a very competitive race. As is often the case, a lead pack of eight or so of the top runners will create a gap in the first 10K. That group will slowly whittle down as the intensity increases. Kiprop, Dibaba and Kenya’s Jemina Sumgong (who won London this year) should lead the way going into the second half. Kiprop will break away in the last 10K, winning in around 2:26-2:27.
Video: Women’s marathon at the 2015 world championships
The Canadian storyline:
Canada has sent two runners in the women’s marathon for the first time ever. At 39, Krista DuChene is one of the oldest racers in the field, and it’s her first Olympics. Her story is already a great one, but she has said she’s not coming to Rio just to take in the experience. Expect her to be very competitive with compatriot Lanni Marchant. DuChene didn’t fare well in her only other major international marathon championship (in Moscow in 2013). That race was extremely hot, and DuChene collapsed at about 10K. She’s been training in warmer conditions than Rio as of late in southern Ontario, so expect her to handle the heat this time around.
Made it! ?? pic.twitter.com/B7bcPFhbid
— Krista DuChene (@kristaduchene) August 9, 2016
Lanni Marchant is entering the toughest race of her life. Just 46 hours before the gun goes off in Rio for the marathon, Marchant was chasing Almaz Ayana in the fastest 10,000m race ever. Marchant ran a strong race (32:05), and she will feel that in her legs in the second half of the marathon for sure. But Marchant wanted this double and won’t back down unless she’s properly injured. Expect her to key in on the other sub-2:30 capable runners around her in the second half and hang on for a quality finish.
Lanni isn’t too pumped about her lunch but she is literally eating my dream #CARBS pic.twitter.com/vSxROkAdpZ
— Jessica O’Connell (@jess__oconnell) August 13, 2016
RELATED: If you haven’t read our recap on the women’s 10,000m record, you can find it here.
What will Team Canada consider a success?
A top 20 finish by either Marchant or DuChene would be a big win. There are 157 entrants in this race, with many capable of running sub-2:25. A smart race under challenging conditions could produce a good result for either Canadian, and that should be the goal. Both will want to claim bragging rights as top Canadian, and certainly both will aim to place in the top half of the field.
RELATED: See how Lanni prepared for the 10,000m/marathon double with this simulation workout.
Oh, and one more thing:
Keep an eye out on the Americans. Amy Cragg and Desiree Linden both ran impressive marathons at the U.S. Trails in L.A. in March. That race was a great test for an August marathon and they showed they can handle the stress of a championship race under very challenging conditions. Shalane Flanagan didn’t look quite as strong in the heat at the trials, but she’s been able to compete with the top East Africans, so all three Americans should be in the mix. Don’t be surprised by an American medal in the women’s marathon.
Start list:
| ORDER / LANE | BIB | ATHLETE | COUNTRY | SB 2016 | PB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 644 | Mare DIBABA |  ETH |
2:24:09 | 2:19:52 |
| 2 | 416 | Adriana Aparecida DA SILVA |  BRA |
2:31:23 | 2:29:17 |
| 3 | 1124 | Jessica AUGUSTO |  POR |
2:28:53 | 2:24:25 |
| 4 | 1340 | Shalane FLANAGAN |  USA |
2:29:19 | 2:21:14 |
| 5 | 616 | Alessandra AGUILAR |  ESP |
2:27:00 | |
| 6 | 958 | Jemima Jelagat SUMGONG |  KEN |
2:22:58 | 2:20:48 |
| 7 | 517 | Shaoqing HUA |  CHN |
2:29:15 | 2:29:15 |
| 8 | 949 | Helah Jelagat KIPROP | KEN |
2:21:27 | 2:21:27 |
| 9 | 1333 | Amy CRAGG | USA |
2:28:20 | 2:27:03 |
| 10 | 913 | Kayoko FUKUSHI |  JPN |
2:22:17 | 2:22:17 |
| 11 | 874 | Valeria STRANEO |  ITA |
2:39:50 | 2:23:44 |
| 12 | 778 | Anja SCHERL |  GER |
2:27:50 | 2:27:50 |
| 13 | 652 | Tigist TUFA | ETH |
2:23:03 | 2:21:52 |
| 14 | 923 | Tomomi TANAKA | JPN |
2:23:19 | 2:23:19 |
| 15 | 1131 | Sara MOREIRA | POR |
2:24:49 | |
| 16 | 452 | Eunice Jepkirui KIRWA |  BRN |
2:22:40 | 2:21:41 |
| 17 | 815 | Kit-Ching YIU |  HKG |
2:38:38 | 2:38:24 |
| 18 | 1352 | Desireé LINDEN | USA |
2:28:54 | 2:25:55 |
| 19 | 971 | Ariana Kira HILBORNA |  LAT |
2:40:32 | 2:35:21 |
| 20 | 748 | Anna HAHNER | GER |
2:30:35 | 2:26:44 |
| 21 | 836 | Kavita RAUT |  IND |
2:38:38 | 2:38:38 |
| 22 | 1115 | Monika STEFANOWICZ |  POL |
2:28:26 | 2:28:26 |
| 23 | 302 | Souad AÏT SALEM |  ALG |
2:25:08 | |
| 24 | 937 | Irina SMOLNIKOVA |  KAZ |
2:55:00 | 2:40:22 |
| 25 | 447 | Shitaye ESHETE | BRN |
2:25:36 | 2:25:36 |
| 26 | 408 | Rosemary QUISPE |  BOL |
2:43:47 | 2:43:47 |
| 27 | 854 | Maor TIYOURI |  ISR |
2:42:22 | 2:42:22 |
| 28 | 1082 | Carmen Patricia MARTÍNEZ |  PAR |
2:36:01 | |
| 29 | 383 | Lucia Mwihaki KIMANI |  BIH |
2:34:57 | |
| 30 | 633 | Leila LUIK |  EST |
2:42:11 | 2:37:11 |
| 31 | 1023 | Alina ARMAS |  NAM |
2:41:11 | 2:33:09 |
| 32 | 651 | Tirfi TSEGAYE | ETH |
2:19:41 | 2:19:41 |
| 33 | 819 | Krisztina PAPP |  HUN |
2:36:59 | |
| 34 | 397 | Volha MAZURONAK |  BLR |
2:23:54 | 2:23:54 |
| 35 | 1388 | Marina HMELEVSKAYA |  UZB |
2:38:36 | |
| 36 | 966 | Kyunghee LIM |  KOR |
2:33:11 | 2:32:49 |
| 37 | 1288 | Nataliya LEHONKOVA |  UKR |
2:31:08 | |
| 38 | 1175 | Claudette MUKASAKINDI |  RWA |
2:40:18 | |
| 39 | 1087 | Mary Joy TABAL |  PHI |
2:43:31 | 2:43:31 |
| 40 | 635 | Lily LUIK | EST |
2:40:30 | |
| 41 | 835 | Jaisha ORCHATTERI | IND |
2:42:26 | 2:34:43 |
| 42 | 1261 | Sultan HAYDAR |  TUR |
2:24:44 | |
| 43 | 547 | Kellys ARIAS |  COL |
2:29:36 | 2:29:36 |
| 44 | 816 | Zsófia ERDÉLYI | HUN |
2:35:37 | 2:35:37 |
| 45 | 1286 | Olha KOTOVSKA | UKR |
2:36:38 | 2:29:13 |
| 46 | 1164 | Christine KALMER |  RSA |
2:33:43 | |
| 47 | 985 | Rasa DRAZDAUSKAITÉ |  LTU |
2:29:29 | |
| 48 | 1308 | Svitlana STANKO-KLYMENKO | UKR |
2:31:28 | |
| 49 | 464 | Nary LY |  CAM |
2:59:42 | |
| 50 | 1243 | Yu-Hsuan CHEN |  TPE |
2:55:21 | |
| 51 | 620 | Azucena DÍAZ | ESP |
2:31:45 | 2:31:45 |
| 52 | 1083 | Jovana DE LA CRUZ |  PER |
2:31:33 | 2:31:33 |
| 53 | 388 | Maryna DAMANTSEVICH | BLR |
2:32:12 | 2:30:07 |
| 54 | 1197 | Niluka RAJASEKARA |  SRI |
2:50:47 | 2:40:07 |
| 55 | 1387 | Sitora HAMIDOVA | UZB |
2:41:49 | |
| 56 | 961 | Mariya KOROBITSKAYA |  KGZ |
2:38:35 | |
| 57 | 1025 | Beata NAIGAMBO | NAM |
2:26:57 | |
| 58 | 545 | Erika ABRIL | COL |
2:34:28 | 2:33:33 |
| 59 | 1183 | Daneja GRANDOVEC |  SLO |
2:40:23 | |
| 60 | 821 | Tünde SZABÓ | HUN |
2:41:09 | |
| 61 | 1405 | Rutendo Joan NYAHORA |  ZIM |
2:39:58 | 2:39:58 |
| 62 | 1014 | Otgonbayar LUVSANLUNDEG |  MGL |
2:35:56 | 2:35:56 |
| 63 | 1084 | Inés MELCHOR | PER |
2:27:40 | 2:26:48 |
| 64 | 1129 | Ana Dulce FÉLIX | POR |
2:25:15 | |
| 65 | 994 | Koutar BOULAID |  MAR |
2:31:26 | 2:31:26 |
| 66 | 670 | Christelle DAUNAY |  FRA |
2:24:22 | |
| 67 | 803 | Ouranía REBOÚLI |  GRE |
2:39:52 | |
| 68 | 963 | Viktoriia POLIUDINA | KGZ |
2:40:36 | 2:40:36 |
| 69 | 599 | Eva VRABCOVÁ NÝVLTOVÁ |  CZE |
2:30:10 | 2:30:10 |
| 70 | 379 | Manuela SOCCOL |  BEL |
2:37:09 | 2:37:09 |
| 71 | 807 | Panayióta VLAHÁKI | GRE |
2:43:00 | 2:43:00 |
| 72 | 1179 | Jie Shi NEO |  SIN |
3:09:57 | |
| 73 | 553 | Angie ORJUELA | COL |
2:35:13 | 2:34:58 |
| 74 | 1238 | Jane VONGVORACHOTI |  THA |
2:42:09 | 2:40:40 |
| 75 | 629 | Estela NAVASCUÉS | ESP |
2:32:49 | 2:32:38 |
| 76 | 804 | Sofía RÍGA | GRE |
2:39:10 | |
| 77 | 609 | María Elena CALLE |  ECU |
2:42:19 | 2:42:19 |
| 78 | 1030 | Andrea DEELSTRA |  NED |
2:26:46 | |
| 79 | 974 | Ilona MARHELE | LAT |
2:38:01 | |
| 80 | 1108 | Katarzyna KOWALSKA | POL |
2:29:47 | 2:29:41 |
| 81 | 446 | Rose CHELIMO | BRN |
2:24:14 | 2:24:14 |
| 82 | 1237 | Natthaya THANARONNAWAT | THA |
2:44:45 | 2:44:45 |
| 83 | 853 | Lornah Chemtai KORLIMA | ISR |
2:40:17 | 2:40:17 |
| 84 | 390 | Nastassia IVANOVA | BLR |
2:34:47 | 2:27:24 |
| 85 | 1167 | Dina Lebo PHALULA | RSA |
2:33:48 | 2:33:48 |
| 86 | 534 | Chao YUE | CHN |
2:30:27 | 2:29:26 |
| 87 | 342 | Jessica TRENGOVE |  AUS |
2:27:45 | |
| 88 | 312 | María PERALTA |  ARG |
2:37:57 | |
| 89 | 509 | Erika OLIVERA |  CHI |
2:42:56 | 2:32:23 |
| 90 | 610 | Rosa CHACHA | ECU |
2:35:29 | |
| 91 | 473 | Krista DUCHENE |  CAN |
2:28:32 | |
| 92 | 563 | Matea MATOSEVIC |  CRO |
2:44:55 | |
| 93 | 1397 | Yolymar PINEDA |  VEN |
2:41:32 | |
| 94 | 1234 | Sara RAMADHANI |  TAN |
2:45:00 | 2:45:00 |
| 95 | 1009 | Margarita HERNÁNDEZ |  MEX |
2:29:57 | 2:29:57 |
| 96 | 1145 | Beverly RAMOS |  PUR |
2:36:31 | 2:36:31 |
| 97 | 1161 | Paula-Claudia TODORAN |  ROU |
2:36:44 | 2:36:44 |
| 98 | 634 | Liina LUIK | EST |
2:39:42 | |
| 99 | 1013 | Munkhzaya BAYARTSOGT | MGL |
2:36:50 | 2:33:36 |
| 100 | 615 | Nebiat HABTEMARIAM |  ERI |
2:32:04 | |
| 101 | 915 | Mai ITO | JPN |
2:24:42 | |
| 102 | 424 | Marily DOS SANTOS | BRA |
2:31:55 | |
| 103 | 1137 | Hye-Gyong KIM |  PRK |
2:27:05 | |
| 104 | 612 | Silvia PAREDES | ECU |
2:42:05 | 2:42:05 |
| 105 | 845 | Fionnuala MCCORMACK |  IRL |
2:31:46 | |
| 106 | 749 | Lisa HAHNER | GER |
2:34:56 | 2:28:39 |
| 107 | 857 | Catherine BERTONE | ITA |
2:30:19 | 2:30:19 |
| 108 | 433 | Graciete SANTANA | BRA |
2:38:33 | 2:38:33 |
| 109 | 722 | Sonia SAMUELS |  GBR |
2:32:00 | 2:28:04 |
| 110 | 567 | Marija VRAJIC | CRO |
2:40:41 | 2:40:41 |
| 111 | 1109 | Iwona LEWANDOWSKA | POL |
2:30:15 | 2:27:47 |
| 112 | 840 | Breege CONNOLLY | IRL |
2:37:29 | |
| 113 | 940 | Gulzhanat ZHANATBEK | KAZ |
2:56:06 | 2:38:36 |
| 114 | 343 | Lisa Jane WEIGHTMAN | AUS |
2:27:35 | 2:26:05 |
| 115 | 986 | Diana LOBACEVSKE | LTU |
2:30:09 | 2:28:57 |
| 116 | 510 | Natalia ROMERO | CHI |
2:47:20 | 2:34:55 |
| 117 | 601 | Jessica DRASKAU-PETERSSON |  DEN |
2:30:07 | |
| 118 | 1191 | Olivera JEVTIC |  SRB |
2:25:23 | |
| 119 | 1153 | Daniela CÂRLAN | ROU |
2:36:18 | |
| 120 | 960 | Iuliia ANDREEVA | KGZ |
2:30:58 | |
| 121 | 1216 | Katarina BÉREŠOVÁ |  SVK |
2:36:20 | |
| 122 | 311 | Rosa GODOY | ARG |
2:38:36 | 2:38:36 |
| 123 | 1085 | Gladys TEJEDA | PER |
2:34:54 | 2:28:12 |
| 124 | 983 | Chirine NJEIM |  LIB |
2:44:19 | 2:44:19 |
| 125 | 989 | Vaida ŽUSINAITE | LTU |
2:32:50 | 2:32:50 |
| 126 | 1088 | Mayada SAYYAD |  PLE |
2:40:00 | 2:40:00 |
| 127 | 1244 | Chien-Ho HSIEH | TPE |
2:43:38 | 2:43:38 |
| 128 | 1210 | Maja NEUENSCHWANDER |  SUI |
2:27:36 | 2:26:49 |
| 129 | 948 | Visiline JEPKESHO | KEN |
2:25:53 | 2:24:44 |
| 130 | 378 | Els RENS | BEL |
2:38:16 | |
| 131 | 865 | Anna INCERTI | ITA |
2:25:32 | |
| 132 | 376 | Veerle DEJAEGHERE | BEL |
2:31:56 | |
| 133 | 1268 | Nyakisi ADERO |  UGA |
2:42:58 | 2:34:54 |
| 134 | 308 | Viviana CHÁVEZ | ARG |
2:38:27 | 2:38:27 |
| 135 | 978 | Jelena PROKOPCUKA | LAT |
2:22:56 | |
| 136 | 482 | Lanni MARCHANT | CAN |
2:28:00 | |
| 137 | 969 | Sarah ATTAR |  KSA |
||
| 138 | 1001 | Lilia FISIKOWICI |  MDA |
2:35:12 | |
| 139 | 1019 | Sladana PERUNOVIC |  MNE |
2:39:07 | |
| 140 | 460 | Militsa MIRCHEVA |  BUL |
2:44:23 | |
| 141 | 600 | Anne Holm BAUMEISTER | DEN |
2:34:28 | |
| 142 | 656 | Anne-Mari HYRYLÄINEN |  FIN |
2:34:12 | 2:34:12 |
| 143 | 349 | Andrea MAYR |  AUT |
2:30:43 | |
| 144 | 1000 | Tereza MASTER |  MAW |
2:50:54 | |
| 145 | 1024 | Helalia JOHANNES | NAM |
2:35:56 | 2:26:09 |
| 146 | 1259 | Meryem ERDOGAN | TUR |
2:35:24 | 2:35:24 |
| 147 | 1010 | Madaí PÉREZ | MEX |
2:29:27 | 2:22:59 |
| 148 | 1139 | Kum-Ok KIM | PRK |
2:36:17 | 2:26:56 |
| 149 | 323 | Milly CLARK | AUS |
2:29:07 | |
| 150 | 965 | Seul-ki AHN | KOR |
2:32:15 | 2:32:15 |
| 151 | 1256 | Esma AYDEMIR | TUR |
2:35:22 | 2:35:22 |
| 152 | 700 | Alyson DIXON | GBR |
2:31:52 | 2:29:30 |
| 153 | 1172 | Irvette VAN ZYL | RSA |
2:32:20 | 2:31:26 |
| 154 | 843 | Lizzie LEE | IRL |
2:32:51 | |
| 155 | 570 | Dailín BELMONTE |  CUB |
2:42:44 | 2:38:08 |
| 156 | 304 | Kenza DAHMANI TIFAHI | ALG |
2:33:53 | 2:33:53 |
| 157 | 1138 | Hye-Song KIM | PRK |
2:43:45 | 2:27:58 |
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