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Elite pacer weighs in on Ruth Chepngetich’s performance in Chicago

Canadian marathoner Calum Neff, who paced Keira D'Amato to her U.S. marathon record, believes Chepngetich shouldn't have missed the women's WR

Photo by: Kevin Morris

On Sunday at the 2022 Chicago Marathon, Ruth Chepngetich of Kenya ran the second-fastest women’s marathon time in history to earn her second straight victory there, narrowly missing the world record. She was minutes ahead of record pace after 10K, and despite slowing significantly in the second half, things really only fell apart in the final kilometre. Pundits have said that, with better pacing in the early kilometres, she would have achieved it; so we got an expert opinion from someone who knows. 

Ruth Chepngetich
Ruth Chepngetich ran the first half in Photo: Kevin Morris

Calum Neff, a Canadian marathoner and elite pacer who helped Keira D’Amato to her American record in 2022, believes that Chepngetich shouldn’t have missed the record. “I think had she set a more conservative pace early on and trusted herself, she could’ve run around 2:13 [the current record, held by Brigid Kosgei, is 2:14:04].

“We know enough about pacing and physiology that the best way to run our best is by slightly negative splitting events over 800m,” says Neff. “Although Chepngetich won the race, her coach and her pacer fell short of her potential.”

Calum Neff during a 50K run in Houston in 2021. Photo: Karen Warren, Houston Chronicle

Neff reiterates that her pace of 30:40 through 10K was unsustainable over 42.2 km; it’s the pacer’s job (who is hired by the athlete) to set a pace that will get the goal accomplished, speeding up in the final portion of the race if all is going well. 

A term Neff commonly uses with his athletes is Velocity Never Exceed (VNE), which means managing your speed and velocity so the wheels don’t fall off, so to speak.

“If the first half of the Chicago Marathon was on a track, Chepngetich’s first half would’ve lapped her second half two or three times,” says Neff. “When running a marathon, you have to be dialled in. Athletes train years for these moments and she and her coach need to know how to set the perfect pace.”

Despite Chepngetich running a personal best, she covered the final 10K in 33:20. Fans can only speculate what she could have run if she had gone out more conservatively. 

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