Preview: the men’s Olympic marathon

It’s been a long time since Canadians had something to get excited about on the last day of the Olympics.

On Sunday morning in London Dylan Wykes, Reid Coolsaet and Eric Gillis will line up with some of the world’s best endurance athletes in order to compete for Olympic gold.

The favourites will be the six entries from Ethiopia and Kenya. Ethiopia has fielded a young squad, including Ayele Abshero, who’s 2:04:23 in Dubai this year was the fastest debut ever in the marathon. Abshero will be joined by countrymen Getu Feleke and Dino Sefir. Feleke also has a 2:04 marathon under his belt, as does Sefir.

Earlier this summer Kenya stunned the running world with it’s cryptic and somewhat perplexing selection of Wilson Kipsang, Abel Kirui and Emmanuel Mutai over the likes of Geoffrey Mutai or Patrick Makau, arguably the two fastest marathoners in the world.

Emmanuel Mutai replaces the injured Moses Mosop, and his pedigree is nothing to scoff at, having set the course record at the 2011 London marathon with a 2:04:40. Mutai has had some success running without pacers, placing second to Kirui after the two duelled it out for much of the race. Mutai is an aggressive runner and likes to take risks. They don’t always pay off, but he certainly could make things interesting on Sunday.

Kipsang is no slouch either, having run the second fastest marathon ever in Frankfurt in 2011 with a 2:03:38. He is also only the second man to ever run three sub 2:05 marathons. Kipsang is a proven winner, putting together a series of five straight 1st place finishes in the marathon after placing 3rd in his debut at Paris in 2010. The former police officer ran (and won) three marathons in 2011, but has only run the London marathon this year.

Abel Kirui is the slowest of the Kenyan trio, running a 2:05:04 way back in 2008 in Rotterdam. Since then he has put together a string of average performances in the 2:07 and 2:08 range. But Kirui knows how to win a tactical, pacer-less race, as he is the back to back IAAF marathon world champion. An Olympic marathon of course does not have pacers. If Kirui shows his tactical know-how on Sunday he may be able to use his teammates as well as the Ethiopians as pace setters before running away on them. Either that, or he becomes the pacer himself for someone else.

The trio of Canadian men should have plenty of company on the race course. Reid Coolsaet has stated publicly that he will be going after both a top-10 finish and a sub-2:10 marathon (and the Canadian record, which is currently 2:10:09). If that is to be the case, Coolsaet may find himself running with at least two of the American runners (Meb keflezighi and Abdi Abdirahman, no doubt), as well part or all of the Japanese group. If Wykes and Gillis follow suit, this international group could form a decent chase pack behind the East Africans. There may be a string of stragglers behind the lead group, perhaps an Eritrean or two, as well as Ryan Hall, who may just decide that he can repeat what he did in 2011 in Boston. If that is the case, the Canadian guys will have some visual motivation ahead of them, which could produce a more favourable result.

The weather is supposed to be fair for the race, but with a 11 a.m. local time start in mid-August. Nevertheless, the conditions will not be ideal for fast running. Also, the Olympic course is extremely twisty and did pose a problem for many of the women’s marathoners last Sunday. It should take the edge off of some, if not all, the runners, providing for a tactical race. Jerome Dreyton’s Canadian record may remain safe tomorrow, but expect to see all three Canadian men run the races of their lives on the biggest stage of them all.