Will Wilson Kipsang break the world record in Berlin?

Over the years, the Berlin Marathon has become synonymous with world records. Five of the last 10 men’s records have been set on the fast and flat Berlin course, including the current mark of 2:03:38, set by Patrick Makau in 2011. On Sunday, another Kenyan, Wilson Kipsang, will attempt to break Makau’s world record at the 2013 Berlin Marathon.

Makau was planning on toeing the line on Sunday morning in Berlin, hoping to lower his mark further. But Makau was forced to pull out of the race due to inflammation in his knee. He’s been struggling with injury since that world record run in 2011 and could not get healthy in time for another attack on his own record. The Kenyan had said that he was going to team-up with fellow countryman Wilson Kipsang to try to drive the record below the 2:03 mark. Kipsang would have been a good choice for a running-mate. The 31-year-old owns the second fastest time in history (2:03:42), which he also ran in 2011.

Since 2011, Kipsang has had a decent set of results. He won the 2012 London Marathon. After a short turn-around, he also claimed the bronze medal at the London Olympics in just a four month period. He’d also planned on running the New York City Marathon, but instead ran and easily won the Honululu Marathon in December.

Now, Kipsang will be the clear favourite to run through the Brandenburg Gate for the win in Berlin.

Kipsang started 2013 with a solid win in the NYC Half. In retrospect, training for three major marathons and finishing last year with a December marathon proved costly for Kipsang. It was unsurprising then that he faltered at the London Marathon this April, finishing a disappointing fifth place in 2:07:47. A pity, considering the marathon was stacked with perhaps the greatest field in history.

Kipsang will now have an opportunity to go for the world record entirely on his own terms. He will get to run with his own group of pacers and alter the pace as he sees fit on race morning.

If he doesn’t go out at 2:03 pace, he could have some interesting company. Don’t be surprised if Eliud Kipchoge or Geoffrey Kipsang try to crash the world record party. The 28-year-old Kipchoge is an intriguing wildcard. He has taken a more traditional route to the marathon, spending much of his career on the track. Kipchoge is a former 5000m world champion with a 12:46 PB, meaning he’s not someone that Kipsang will want to tangle with in the last kilometre of a race. Kipchoge moved up to the marathon earlier this year, winning Hamburg with a respectable 2:05:30 debut.

Trailer The Unknown Runner, which features Geoffrey Kipsang as he trains for and runs his debut marathon in Berlin last year.

At just 20-years-old, Geoffrey Kipsang is an example of a new group of very young East Africans that are making the jump to the marathon much earlier than previous generations. Geoffrey was the 2011 world junior cross-country champion, and his 2012 marathon debut was a 2:0612 on the Berlin course. He showed weakness at the distance this year, placing fourth on the fast Rotterdam course in a mediocre 2:09:12. But he has beaten Wilson Kipsang in 2013 at altitude in a half-marathon in Colombia in late July. He’ll be hungry to come out on top in his second crack at Berlin.

Wilson Kipsang is the only male runner in the top five of the World Marathon Majors Series points standings. With only Berlin, Chicago and New York yet to be ran for the 2012-2013 series and its $500,000 prize, Kipsang could move up to second place with a win in Berlin. He would then have to entertain running in New York in order to take the cash prize, as Stephen Kiprotich, who currently sits second in the standings, is planning on running the final event of the series. A second place finish would secure Kiprotich the series title. Ethiopia’s Tesgaye Kebede is currently in the top position with 65 points, but isn’t slated to run a fall marathon.