Greatest women’s field in New York City Marathon history could threaten course record

As the TCS New York City Marathon, the year’s final major marathon, approaches, it’s anticipated to host the most competitive women’s field ever, comprising world champions, Olympic champions, world record holders and former NYC marathon winners. Could this be the year that Margaret Okayo’s course record of 2:22:31 (from 2003) is finally broken?

If what we’ve seen so far this year is any indication, we predict it will not stand past Sunday. First there was Sifan Hassan‘s impressive debut, winning first London (in April) and then Chicago (in October). In September, Tigist Assefa shattered the women’s world record in Berlin with an jaw-dropping 2:11:53.

Given that it’s been 20 years since the course record was last broken in New York, the timing seems right. The women’s elite field is packed with talent, including the 2020 Tokyo Olympic marathon champion and 2021 NYC champion Peres Jepchirchir, reigning NYC champion Sharon Lokedi, 2023 Boston Marathon champion Hellen Obiri, women’s 10,000m world record holder Letesenbet Gidey, reigning world champion Amane Beriso and the third-fastest woman in history and former world record holder, Brigid Kosgei. The 2023 women’s elite race in NYC boasts the calibre of an Olympic or world marathon, with the best athletes competing on the biggest marathon major stage.

So who’s the favourite?

Any of these six women could win on Sunday, but it’s challenging to overlook Obiri’s strength and skill. Last year, the 33-year-old Kenyan made her marathon debut in NYC, falling short of her goals. She revealed struggles with fueling and an imperfect physical condition for the race. Shortly after the 2022 World Championships, she relocated from Kenya to Boulder, Colo., joining the On Athletics Club under the guidance of coach Dathan Ritzenhein.

Amid high expectations due to her successful track career and numerous world cross-country championships, Obiri finished sixth, in 2:25:49. However, she made a remarkable comeback, clinching victory in Boston in April. When asked about participating in the 2023 World Athletics Championships after her Boston triumph, Obiri declared her focus was on returning to NYC and winning.

During the athlete press conference on Thursday, her coach, Ritzenhein, said she’s currently in the best shape he’s ever seen her in. Considering her dominant performance in Boston, it appears this race is hers to lose.

What about Kosgei and Gidey?

It’s been a minute since we saw Kenya’s Kosgei and Ethiopia’s Gidey run a marathon. Kosgei hasn’t finished a marathon since March 2022, when she won the Tokyo Marathon. She was one of the favourites heading into London this year (a race she has won twice) but ended up with a DNF. Kosgei held the women’s world record until Assefa broke her mark of 2:14:04 in Berlin in September. We know Kosgei is fast, but she hasn’t raced since April, and New York’s slow and hilly course could be a challenge for her return. 

Gidey comes to New York with one marathon on her resume. After a world-record-setting career on the track, Gidey made her highly awaited debut at the distance last year in Valencia–one of the fastest marathon courses in the world. Everyone expected Gidey to obliterate Kosgei’s world record, and she didn’t have a bad debut. Still, she was humbled by the distance, finishing second to her compatriot, Beriso, with a time of 2:16:49–a record, at the time for the fastest-ever women’s marathon debut.

Gidey has had an up-and-down 2023 season, by her own standards. She won silver in the women’s 10,000m at Worlds and ran sub 14:10 over 5,000m twice, holding the fourth, fifth and sixth fastest women’s 5,000m times in history. Gidey possesses track speed, and if this were a half-marathon on Sunday, her 10,000m world record and three world cross titles would serve her well on this undulating course. However, in a marathon, relying solely on track speed has its limitations. If the 25-year-old can demonstrate the stamina needed for 42.2 km, she might end up being the surprise winner. Racing against Obiri, Gidey previously bested her for gold in the 10,000m at the 2019 World Athletics Championships in Doha; if the race starts fast, could she outperform Obiri once again?

The former champions

It’s been seven years since the NYC marathon last saw a repeat champion, with Kenya’s Mary Keitany (2015 and 2016), but can last year’s champ, Lokedi, join that exclusive club? Last year, Lokedi won the marathon in her debut, which marked the first-ever marathon major win for an Under Armour-sponsored athlete. But since her historic triumph, things have been rocky for Lokedi, who had to withdraw from the Boston Marathon due to a foot injury that took her out for the majority of the season. She says she is back, and wants to defend her NYC title. One thing Lokedi has in her favour as defending champion is confidence. She knows the course, which gives her a strategic advantage.

Another former NYC champion making a return to New York is the reigning Olympic champion, Jepchirchir. Tactically, Jepchirchir might be one of the best racers in the field, a trait she showcased when she triumphed here in 2021 and went on to win the Boston Marathon five months later. She has won five of her last six marathons, and if the pace sets out conservatively on Sunday, it will likely favour more tactical-style racers like her and Obiri. But there are concerns, since Jepchirchir is returning from an injury and is not certain she will start on Sunday. During Thursday’s elite press conference, she mentioned re-aggravating her calf injury just before she travelled to New York last week. She’ll make the decision after her final shakeout run on Saturday.

A dark horse

Many who are following the race will have their eyes on Obiri, Gidey or Jepchirchir. However, if you’re seeking a surprise in NYC, it’s likely to come from Ethiopia’s Beriso. Since her victory in the 2022 Mexico City Marathon in August last year, Beriso has been in incredible form, achieving an impressive 2:14:58 win in Valencia–the fifth-fastest time in history. She was also the runner-up to Obiri in Boston and secured her first world championship title at the 2023 World Athletics Championships in Budapest in August. Beriso’s recent success suggests she’s in remarkable form, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see her atop the podium again, which would be a storybook ending to her year.

How to watch

The 2023 TCS New York City Marathon will be aired in Canada on TSN2, with coverage beginning at 8:00 a.m. ET Sunday. You can also stream the event live online via the TSN app or via TSN.ca/live.

All the action for the 2023 TCS New York City Marathon will be brought to you by Canadian Running and New Balance. Follow us on Twitter on Instagram for in-depth coverage, live-tweeting and up-to-date exclusive news and content.