Will Eliud Kipchoge break the world record at Berlin Marathon?

The eyes of the world will be on Eliud Kipchoge at the BMW Berlin Marathon on Sunday. The double Olympic champion must run a qualifying time for the 2024 Paris Olympics; and while that time (2:08:10) is well within his capabilities, such is the competition for the three spots allotted to Kenya that he will likely have to run something close to a world-record pace to secure it.

The men’s elite field is extraordinarily deep, with 12 men with personal bests of under 2:06; Kipchoge’s main competition will be 2022 London Marathon champion Amos Kipruto, who holds a personal best of 2:03:13 from last year’s Tokyo Marathon (which was won by Kipchoge). At Friday’s press conference, Kipruto indicated he is aiming for a PB–though, as race director Mark Milde admitted on Friday, that is always the goal, because of the nature of the flat course. “It would be fair to say that every elite runner comes to Berlin to run their personal best,” said Milde.

BMW BERLIN-MARATHON 2023 I World Class Athletes I RETURN OF THE #BERLINLEGEND ⭐@EliudKipchoge returns to Berlin! 💥 @AmoskiprutoS with big ambitions 💥 Tigist Assefa expected to have another strong performance 💥 Sheila Chepkirui with high-class goals #berlinmarathon pic.twitter.com/q6odcchRIX

— BMW BERLIN-MARATHON (@berlinmarathonE) July 13, 2023

Kipchoge’s situation is complicated by the fact that several other Kenyans have already achieved the Olympic standard in the marathon: Kelvin Kiptum, who won this year’s London Marathon in an astounding 2:01:25; Timothy Kiplagat (who finished second at the Rotterdam Marathon, in 2:03:50); Bernard Koech (who won the Hamburg Marathon in 2:04:09); and Geoffrey Kamworor (second at London in 2:04:23). And there are four more world majors on the calendar that are within the qualifying window for Paris, as well as the Valencia Marathon on Dec. 3, which is a notoriously fast course. So realistically, Kipchoge must run under 2:04 on Sunday to punch his ticket to Paris. 

At Friday’s press conference, Kipchoge did not give any real indication of his fitness, or the time he is targeting. A world record seems unlikely, but may not be out of the question. He admitted to some nervousness, but said, “… that shows I’m ready.”

“I’ll try to run a good time,” he added.

Other elites to watch

Amanal Petros of Germany will be looking to break his country’s national marathon record (2:06:27), which he set at the 2021 Valencia Marathon; in 48 years, that record has never been set in Berlin. Amanal spent four months training at altitude in Kenya during his build-up for Sunday’s race. 

Tadesse Abraham will also be targeting his own national record for Switzerland of 2:06:38, set at last year’s Zurich Marathon; now 41, he has an opportunity also to break Kenenisa Bekele’s masters marathon record of 2:05:53 from London Marathon last year.

Other names to watch include Scott Fauble of the U.S., who has three seventh-place finishes at the Boston Marathon, and who holds a PB of 2:09:42.

There are no Canadian men in the elite field this year.

For our women’s elite preview, click here.

The race will be streamed on FloTrack, beginning at 2:15 a.m. ET Sunday (the race kicks off with the elite start at 3:15 a.m. ET); you can sign up for a FloTrackan account here.