Rio preview – Women’s 1,500m: Kipeygon vs. Dibaba, and can a Canadian make the final?

When:

Friday, Aug. 12; 7:30 p.m. EDT Heats
Sunday, Aug. 14th; 8:30 p.m. EDT Semi-finals
Tuesday, Aug. 16th; 9:30 p.m. EDT Final

Who’s the favourite(s):

Genzebe Dibaba (Ethiopia) and Faith Kipyegon (Kenya)

RELATED: IAAF announces Dibaba, Eaton as athletes of the year

How to watch:

This women’s 1,500m takes place over three days beginning with three preliminary heats and then two semi-finals and a final. Forty-two athletes are scheduled to run in Friday’s heats with the top six from each heat and the next six fastest all advancing to the semis. Twenty-four semi-finalists are then reduced to 12 finalists with the four top spots in each semi being automatic and the next four fastest times advancing to the finals.

The 1,500m is considered a middle-distance event that takes about four minutes to run for the top women. It begins with a 300m partial lap before three full 400m laps of the track.  You should most definitely watch the entire race live as a lot can and does happen during this relatively short period of time. It’s best watched paired with Twitter, so you can follow all the nuances and commentary of the race. While most 1,500m races start off slow as athletes jockey for position, the final lap and especially the last 200m is where the race is won or lost.

In Canada, CBC will be streaming all Olympics events for free online and will also air the most popular and in-demand events–including most athletics–live on their network. Because the 1,500m is taking place in the evening, expect to see the race live in prime time.

What to watch for:

Let’s begin by stating the obvious: this event is not without controversy. One of the favourites, current world record holder and defending World Champion Genzebe Dibaba of Ethiopia, is currently marred in a doping scandal that includes her long-time coach Jama Aden. Aden was arrested in Spain several months ago when numerous vials, needles and EPO was discovered in a hotel room occupied by he and his athletes. He denies any wrongdoing and to date has not been formally charged but many are now even more skeptical than they were when Dibaba broke what many believed was an unbreakable record–running 3:50.07 for 1,500m at the Monaco Diamond League meet in 2015.

RELATED: Exclusive interview: Jama Aden, coach of world record holder Genzebe Dibaba, explains doping arrest

To make matters worse, many will look back four years ago to the 1,500m final of the London Olympics where six of the 12 women who competed have served a drug ban, tested positive for a banned substance or have been suspected of biological passport abnormalities. It was arguably one of the dirtiest races of all time.

Whether that was just a particularly bad race or if in fact this event is prone to doping is still up for debate. The absence of Russia and the top Turkish runners from 2012 will no doubt help, however.

All that aside, this year’s Olympic event features an excellent field that includes eight of the top nine from the 2015 World Championships. This includes Faith Kipyegon, Laura Muir and Shannon Rowbury, the national record holders from Kenya, Britain and U.S.A. respectively as well as World Indoor champ Sifan Hassan and defending U.S. champ Jenny Simpson. Eight women in the field have run under four minutes and while that mark is unlikely to be run during this competition–when races are run more strategically and are thus slower–these women are definitely considered the favourites to take home some hardware.

Who will win: Kenya’s Faith Kipyegon

Normally you’d be a fool to bet against Dibaba but she has struggled with injury his year and has only finished a few races so far in 2016.

Kipyegon is undefeated this year and at only 22 years of age, has a ton talent to fall back on. She was the silver medallist (behind Dibaba) at the World Championships in 2015 and has won Diamond League meets in Shanghai and Eugene running 3:56 national records both times.

How it will play out:

The top contenders will run relatively slow and “safe” preliminary races in order to ensure their spot in the final. Note: There is always a degree of physical contact in these races and trips, falls and nasty spills are known to happen and can take out even the best athletes through no or little fault of their own.

Once the final field is set, expect the race to start slow for the first and second lap and the field to stay more or less together the whole time. With 300-500m to go, one or more of the athletes will make a move and try to hold on to the finish but the best kickers should be able to counter. One way or another, the race will be won in the final 100m.

In addition to Kipyegon and Dibaba, expect Britain’s Muir, America’s Rowburry and Simpson, Dutch athlete Hassan and Ethiopia’s Sayieum to be in contention in the final few hundred metres.

The Canadian storyline:

Three Canadians have qualified to run in Rio: Hilary Stellingwerff, Gabriela Stafford and Nicole Sifuentes. This will be Stellingwerff (PB of 4:05.08) and Sifuentes’ (4:03.97) second Olympic Games; both competed in the same event in London 2012.  Stellingwerff narrowly missed out on qualifying for the final–which she would have easily if you eliminate all the dopers–and has since become an outspoken critic of doping in sport. Stafford (4:06.93) at 20 years of age is making her Olympic debut and has youth on her side.

Stafford finished ahead of Sifuentes (2nd) and Stellingwerff (3rd) at the Canadian Championships in Edmonton about a month ago so she knows she has what it takes to beat her older, more experienced competitors.

RELATED: Day three of Canadian track championships proves to be the best yet

What will Team Canada consider a success?

If any Canadian can qualify for the final, that would be a huge accomplishment, both for the athlete and for Team Canada. Making the semi-final at least is probably not a bad place to start and a reasonable goal for these three athletes. In such an esteemed and high-calibre event, running a seasonal or personal best would also be a nice way to celebrate the experience.

Start list

ORDER / LANE	BIB	ATHLETE	COUNTRY	SB 2016	PB
1	1195	Amela TERZIC	SRB	4:05.53	4:04.77
2	1199	Celma BONFIM DA GRAÇA	STP	4:37.80	4:37.80
3	1133	Marta PEN FREITAS	POR	4:06.54	4:06.54
4	944	Nancy CHEPKWEMOI	KEN	4:05.22	4:03.09
5	1093	Angelika CICHOCKA	POL	4:03.25	4:03.06
6	324	Linden HALL	AUS	4:01.78	4:01.78
7	1049	Saraswati BHATTARAI	NEP
8	1035	Maureen KOSTER	NED	4:03.84	3:59.79
9	494	Hilary STELLINGWERFF	CAN	4:05.61	4:05.08
10	757	Konstanze KLOSTERHALFEN	GER	4:06.91	4:06.91
11	996	Siham HILALI	MAR	4:07.39	4:01.33
12	643	Genzebe DIBABA	ETH	3:59.83	3:50.07
13	844	Ciara MAGEEAN	IRL	4:08.05	4:06.49
14	1355	Brenda MARTINEZ	USA	4:03.57	4:00.94

ORDER / LANE	BIB	ATHLETE	COUNTRY	SB 2016	PB
1	992	Malika AKKAOUI	MAR	4:10.26	4:04.49
2	1095	Sofia ENNAOUI	POL	4:05.10	4:04.26
3	1147	Anjelina Nadai LOHALITH	ROT
4	492	Gabriela STAFFORD	CAN	4:06.53	4:06.53
5	728	Laura WEIGHTMAN	GBR	4:02.66	4:00.17
6	1075	Nikki HAMBLIN	NZL	4:07.18	4:04.82
7	448	Tigist GASHAW	BRN	4:06.53	4:05.58
8	1032	Sifan HASSAN	NED	4:00.87	3:56.05
9	548	Muriel CONEO	COL	4:06.99	4:06.99
10	950	Faith Chepngetich KIPYEGON	KEN	3:56.41	3:56.41
11	1158	Florina PIERDEVARA	ROU	4:12.37	4:07.95
12	1372	Jennifer SIMPSON	USA	4:01.57	3:57.22
13	647	Besu SADO	ETH	4:00.08	4:00.08
14	318	Jenny BLUNDELL	AUS	4:04.62	4:04.62

ORDER / LANE	BIB	ATHLETE	COUNTRY	SB 2016	PB
1	648	Dawit SEYAUM	ETH	3:58.10	3:58.10
2	491	Nicole SIFUENTES	CAN	4:03.97	4:03.97
3	951	Violah Cheptoo LAGAT	KEN	4:06.00	4:04.10
4	1222	Meraf BAHTA	SWE	4:02.62	4:01.34
5	322	Zoe BUCKMAN	AUS	4:06.92	4:04.09
6	710	Laura MUIR	GBR	3:57.49	3:57.49
7	1119	Danuta URBANIK	POL	4:06.58	4:06.58
8	605	Kadra MOHAMED DEMBIL	DJI
9	1370	Shannon ROWBURY	USA	4:04.65	3:56.29
10	783	Diana SUJEW	GER	4:07.40	4:05.62
11	1266	Betlhem DESALEGN	UAE	4:03.70	4:03.70
12	867	Margherita MAGNANI	ITA	4:07.91	4:06.05
13	993	Rababe ARAFI	MAR	4:03.95	4:02.71
14	1241	Nelia MARTINS	TLS	4:58.80	4:58.80